Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 18.837679 21.800385 25.008199 28.730837 32.923011 37.488729 42.828124
2024-12-15 14.507288 18.688430 23.632695 29.868987 37.479425 46.416685 57.653781
2024-12-22 11.170551 15.822909 21.764273 29.809302 40.305377 53.410097 70.866230
2024-12-29 9.445062 14.511605 21.416428 31.331704 44.988571 62.892645 87.845987
2025-01-05 7.899660 13.080209 20.570421 31.906023 48.281045 70.674948 103.115964
2025-01-12 6.600386 11.725762 19.555109 31.987096 50.734014 77.353301 117.248610
2025-01-19 5.585564 10.603390 18.671672 32.061103 53.052996 83.879704 131.493502
2025-01-26 5.191540 10.419334 19.191006 34.284197 58.705366 95.548797 153.835221
2025-02-02 4.710352 9.990073 19.227722 35.691697 63.151112 105.657429 174.443574
2025-02-09 4.279017 9.570887 19.207536 36.962645 67.427172 115.723134 195.525811
2025-02-16 3.726001 8.816915 18.485143 36.923504 69.496396 122.405750 211.698439
2025-02-23 3.149852 7.907769 17.346913 35.998199 69.939829 126.442395 223.840821
2025-03-02 2.643811 7.065780 16.248745 35.071794 70.382867 130.648155 236.775374
2025-03-09 2.330311 6.593908 15.821404 35.365899 73.029411 138.730640 256.605418
2025-03-16 1.994919 6.000023 15.055267 34.903966 74.234392 144.403844 272.714573
2025-03-23 1.865480 5.888671 15.302288 36.493810 79.396380 157.267702 301.740289
2025-03-30 1.679228 5.589534 15.086871 37.089792 82.669698 166.927940 325.664347
2025-04-06 1.482628 5.218159 14.650479 37.159700 84.896706 174.798827 346.813798
2025-04-13 1.311809 4.880083 14.241355 37.235434 87.121086 182.763447 368.494059
2025-04-20 1.286883 4.973101 14.899053 39.760494 94.526086 200.784750 409.175630
2025-04-27 1.215364 4.906270 15.144044 41.358408 100.102674 215.613371 444.653810
2025-05-04 1.141749 4.816662 15.317358 42.801011 105.441766 230.242916 480.386306
2025-05-11 1.014246 4.515505 14.886674 42.756383 107.575279 238.747910 505.037863